The highest snowfall potential is usually in regions with colder temperatures and more precipitation. This is a reflection of the pressure changes in the latest model forecast. It relocates the jet stream downwards between the two strong pressure systems, marked above by the blue lines. In winter, the land gets cold more quickly than the sea, so where there is a lot of land and very little sea, such as the huge interior of continental Europe, Canada or the United States, it gets cold enough for snow to fall frequently, it says. Place or UK postcode. Precipitation-wise, the period from November to January is expected to bring below-average precipitation and thus diminished early-season snow and rain chances in much of the southern half of the country, with the greatest chances of below-normal precipitation forecast from coastal South Carolina and Florida all the way to the shores of far Southern California. First is the ECMWF, and then it is the UKMO. Maximum temperature 7C. But looking at the March snow forecast image below, we can see most of Europe having a lower-than-normal end to the snow season. I dont want to be guilty of self-promotion, but I recently published a. Again, there is an expectation that January and February will see more of an influence from the Atlantic, with the ECMWF maps indicating near-average precipitation levels for most of the UK. The Met Office has warned that snow may appear across the north and west of the UK as early as 9 November. The new forecast, issued Aug.18, 2022, is pegged on the thought that La Nia is expected to continue through this winter before fading to near normal water temperatures next spring. Here is the forecast for the coming days. Categories Long range / seasonal forecast. The pattern in the map is very weak, with very small departures between the two groups. The cold phase is called La Nina, and the warm phase is called El Nino. This will be followed by the Quadrantid Meteor Shower . The ENSO influence is spread globally through this feedback system, creating different Winter temperature and snowfall patterns. Winter Weather Predictions From Farmers' Almanac - Simplemost The figure above shows the sea surface temperature differences between the high- and low-precipitation groups in the SPEAR simulations. And did tropical sea surface temperatures contribute? My calculation that follows confirms this suspicion. The question is, whats different about those years? As a snow lover, I am jealous of Flagstaff residents, though I suppose many of those residents have a different perspective than I do. Overall, the UKMO is much more dynamic than the ECMWF and leaves more possibilities open regarding pattern development. NOAA Official precipitation outlook points: Also, we will keep you updated on other developing weather trends, so bookmark our page. Cold weather to arrive this weekend, bringing wintry showers to Scotland, Nanoplastics now ubiquitous in air, water and soil, says new report. The seasonal outlook looks at temperature and precipitation trends between December 2021 through February 2022. 4th grader reports Friday's weather forecast 1 day ago. ), and I have seen that there are a few studies that point to processes around Antarctica that could be contributing. 1 Quote; Link to comment . A somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10. This does not mean there will be no snow, but it indicates less snowfall than normal. I don't have an explanation except to speculate that the multidecadal enhancement of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (like what was described in this post) is helping to keep the tropical atmosphere more La Nina-like even when the typical ENSO sea surface temperature indexes are deviating from typical La Nina values. This latest forecast cycle interestingly shows more snowfall over the western United States and also the Midwest. This precipitation forecast has a lot do with La Nia, which has already started to settle in. Much of this snowfall does not settle, and the figures for snow on the ground (snow lying) are much lower. Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook - National Oceanic and (NOAA) But that does not mean it has no impact. But now, we will look at actual Winter snowfall predictions from the latest forecast models. The rest of the United States is forecast to receive less snowfall than normal this month, with the expectation of the far northeastern United States and parts of the southeast. This is a region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean that changes between warm and cold phases. Of course, as with all these predictions, they are just indications of the long-range patterns. And we can expect plenty of it this winter, according to the Farmers' Almanac, which recently released its 2022-23 Extended Weather Forecast. Resources such as drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. Also, the southwest is expected to be dry during the winter months, which won't help the drought. The Old Farmers Almanac is predicting a divided nation with harsh winter in the East and mild weather in the West. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on precipitation data from NOAAs Precipitation Reconstruction over Land (PREC/L). Warmer than normal weather and mild winter conditions typically develop over the southwestern United States, eastern United States, and eastern Canada. By January, most of the country is mild, with lower temperatures farther north and a serious chill entering the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region by February, while the Southeast especially toward Florida, warms up. From February to April, below-normal precipitation is forecast in the Southwest and coastal portions of the Southeast, but areas including Texas may see a respite from less-than-normal snowfall and rainfall. In the SPEAR simulations, I examined the relationship between the ensemble mean Southwest U.S. precipitation anomalies and the La Nina SST anomalies. The image below shows the average pressure pattern during the La Nina winters in the past 40 years. This is an interesting question, and perhaps sometime Nat will have a chance to look into it. Less snowfall is forecast in the eastern half of the United States for the month of January. Those rainstorms may cause flooding in the Ohio Valley and along the Mississippi River, AccuWeather says. To analyze the effect of different sea surface temperature patterns on early-winter precipitation in the Southwest during La Nia, I first defined two groups: the wettest 20% and driest 20% of simulations. 2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread Again, you can see more snowfall than normal, covering a large area from western Canada down into the northwestern United States and the far upper Midwest. Hello climate.gov administrator, You always provide in-depth analysis and understanding. You can see a strong snowfall anomaly over the Midwest and the Great Lakes, expanding over the northeastern United States. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23 The standard deviation of this set of values is 0.725 mm/day. When we plug those values in, we get (0.725)2/(0.194)2 = 14, which is why I conclude that chaotic weather variations are about 14 times more important than the variations caused by sea surface temperature variations for December-January Southwest U.S. precipitation during La Nia events. The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance. Of course, March can still be cold and usually provides snowfall. We know that all La Nias feature below-average surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, by definition, but the details vary from event to event. Instead, the pattern looked a bit more like the positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode. The video covers both precipitation and temperature predictions, polar vortex, arctic blasts, typical snowfall, and regions that will see wamr and dry conditions for winter 2022 - 2023. We're just a few days into meteorological winter and something rather interesting is stirring. Here, I am focusing on the Southwest region south of 40 N that covers most of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, in early winter (December-January). But the main focus is on global long-range weather forecasting systems. Verification, impacts and post-processing, Climate information for international development, Science for Impacts, Resilience and Adaptation (SIRA), Atmospheric processes and parametrizations, Regional model evaluation and development, Environmental Hazard and Resilience Services, National Meteorological Library & Archive. I follow that convention here, though Im really calculating the inverse, meaning the noise-to-signal ratio. Minimum temperature 2C. Submitted by Craig T on Thu, 03/02/2023 - 18:31, In reply to forecast busts by Nathaniel.Johnson, Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Fri, 03/03/2023 - 10:31, Minor correction. This model has been quite consistent with low snow accumulation since the early September runs. But what does that mean for snowfall potential? Winter 2022/2023 snowfall predictions come together as the cold meteorological season is about to begin. Confidence remains very low during this period. That doesnt mean that the different flavors of La Nia cannot be important for Southwest U.S. precipitation, and its worth trying to better understand the simulated La Nia precipitation variations. There will be a chance to catch the last major meteor shower of 2021 just before Christmas, with the Ursids peaking on December 22 and 23. Thank you for the immense and informative analysis . The bottom line is that La Nia may tilt the odds toward dry early winter conditions in the Southwest, but La Nia clearly does not eliminate the chance of wet conditions either. ENSO phases significantly influence tropical rainfall, pressure patterns, and the complex exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere. December finally brings the cold. NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter, said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAAs Climate Prediction Center. The Farmers Almanac says conditions in the Upper Midwest will be glacial, and it suggests there will be plenty of snow and chilly conditions for winter lovers to enjoy including the potential for a White Christmas. The lowest temperatures are expected in the Ohio Valley into the Upper Midwest, which are forecast to be 1 to 3 degrees below normal. Most of the continent is forecast to have less snowfall than normal, except for far northern Europe. Winter Forecast 2022 - 2023 - YouTube One way we could try to address this question is to group both the wettest and driest La Nias over the Southwest in December-January and then see if there are notable differences in the sea surface temperature patterns that occurred during wetter La Nias versus drier La Nias. This question often boils down to whether there were subtle variations in the sea surface temperature pattern that preconditioned the atmosphere for wetter-than-usual conditions in the region (2). Higher temperatures are forecast for the West; WeatherBell projects temperatures 1 to 3 degrees above normal in the Southwest. (Head to footnote 6 for all the gory math details.). My question, regarding the un-forecast DEC/JAN 2022-23 is whether the heavy precipitation was contributed to by the unusual presence of warming near and east of the Dateline referred to by NOAA as "warm blob" NEP22A and NEP23A? Drought is expected to impact the middle and lower Mississippi Valley this winter. The million-dollar question for seasonal forecasters and climate scientists alike is whether this unusually wet Southwestern U.S. could have been anticipated more than a few weeks in advance. The problem with this approach, however, is that our record of reliable observations is just too short to slice and dice the data in this way. Europe is not known to have any specific/direct influences, as it is too far from the source regions. It's important to keep in mind that not every location in the Southwest has been wetter than normal lately. To better understand the ENSO changes, we produced a video showing the La Nina anomalies from Summer into Fall. These variations include the magnitude and location of the strongest tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaliesa particular flavor of La Nia. The 2022-2023 winter season may have record-breaking cold temperatures of 40 degrees below zero in some places in the US! The Majority of these Atmospheric Rivers have missed this area and only the last month has some of the area received measurable Moisture. - 29 US states are under winter weather alerts as people brace for a winter storm expected to bring heavy snow . We have also produced an image that shows the snowfall forecast change compared to the forecast from the previous month. Light winds. This atmospheric river onslaught surprised many who were expecting a dry season, especially in the Southwest, not only because of the prolonged drought, but also because La Nia tends to bring drier-than-average winter conditions to the region. (NOAA Climate.gov, using NWS CPC data) Download Image Temperature Drier conditions also develop in the southeastern United States as La Nina produces a weaker subtropical jet stream and less moisture over the southern United States. Thank you for your comment, and I agree that the influence of the stratosphere on seasonal predictability and predictions is an important topic that deserves continued focus. We will take a closer look at the weather influence that La Nina usually shows over North America, which is under a more direct influence. Fast, informative and written just for locals. Technically, this value also will reflect, in part, the increases in greenhouse gas increases in the simulation, but this effect on precipitation is relatively small. The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year, officially arrives on December 21, 2022, but that doesn't always mean that the cold temperatures and snow storms will wait until then. Precipitation was slightly lower than normal. The most important ingredients for snowfall are the air being cold enough and a supply of moisture. The main takeaway for much of the country: Expect snow, rain and mush, and a lot of it,. A person clears their car of snow to go to work, in Provo, Utah, on Feb. 22, 2023. Also, if you have seen this article in the Google App (Discover) feed, click the like button () there to see more of our forecasts and our latest articles on weather and nature in general. Below-average temperatures are forecast in the northern contiguous United States, stretching from northern Michigan to northern Washington state. Precipitation-wise, La Nina winters are usually drier over the southern United States. Transcript (PDF): October 20 virtual media briefing on Winter Outlook 2022, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Integrated Drought Information System. You can see that more snowfall is being forecast across much of the western United States compared to the previous forecast. Note that even the most scientifically advanced seasonal outlooks cannot pinpoint what the weather will be in a particular place at a particular time this far in advance.