Team up with others in your region, and help out by While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. But it's also not unprecedented. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. What, if anything, did we miss? Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. Read about our approach to external linking. In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. . Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. The divisions were everywhere. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. 12. Nobody forgot about politics.". It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Just how big is it? Trump won 18 of the 19. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. Outstanding. Joe Biden (631) Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Seriously. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. 2. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. Telegram Telegram Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Demographics (84) Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. . It gets a lot more interesting. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Here's why. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Click here, for more. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. 2020 Election (1210) Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN Subscribe to breaking updates If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. hide caption. i.e. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Yes, another Hillsborough! 5. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Bellwether - Wikipedia Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. Still, the state's worth watching. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State).